Steady as she goes is market forecast

A more settled outlook for the property market in 2010 is predicted across central Scotland following the turbulence of the past year, according to industry sources.

A GSPC survey published just before Christmas revealed that following a “rollercoaster ride” in 2009, house prices in Strathclyde had recovered to almost exactly the same level as a year earlier, giving an average figure of £134,400.

While prices in Glasgow were still 1.4% down on average, elsewhere in the region there was a 4.4% gain in the previous 12 months. However landward areas still showed a 16% decline from the 2007 peak, compared with 8% in Glasgow.

The analysis, conducted by Professor Gwilym Pryce of the Urban Studies Department at Glasgow University, also reported that although sales fell sharply in the first quarter, this was more than matched by the fall in the number of properties coming on to the market, thus retaining a level of competition among buyers. Selling times also fell from a peak of 132 days at the start of the year to around 80 days, implying “a significant recovery in confidence that is not reflected in the selling prices data”.

Looking to 2010, GSPC forecasts that prices will hover around their current levels throughout the year, but with a continued improvement in the number of transactions.

Professor Pryce suggested that the data indicated that sellers were becoming more realistic about the price they could expect to achieve and were adjusting their expectations.

GSPC chairman Michael Samuel said: “Any recovery in the economy will not have an impact on the property market for some time to come – at least until real incomes start to rise again and insecurity about jobs fades. At the same time, more houses coming on to the market will widen choice and so help to spread demand. The impact of low interest rates and better mortgage availability is likely to be offset by continued economic weakness and concerns about jobs.”

A big player in the Edinburgh property market also predicts a stable outlook in 2010. Warners, solicitors and estate agents believe that prices will remain stable in the first half of the year, due in part to the end of the VAT and stamp duty concessions, but will then start to rise as confidence returns to the market.

Partner Scott Brown however warned that the market could be hampered if the Bank of England decides to raise its base rate dramatically in response to a perceived threat of inflation.

“I would hope that any move to increase interest rates is resisted until there has been a sustained period of recovery in both the economy in general and the property market in particular”, he said.

“If this common sense prevails, I think there is genuine reason to be optimistic about the property market in the second half of 2010.”

Estate agency triumph for maloco

Dunfermline-based solicitors and estate agents maloco + associates are celebrating after beating off property sector competition to win the Best Scottish Estate Agency in the small firm category at the 2009 Estate Agency of the Year Awards.

The UK-wide awards, now in their sixth year and held for the first time in association with The Sunday Times, were announced at Chelsea Football Club’s presentation suite at Stamford Bridge.

Senior partner Michael Maloco said the firm had twice previously won a silver medal but this was the first time a solicitor-based agency had taken top slot.

Entries were scrutinised by a panel of independent industry experts and the judging process was overseen by the Property Ombudsman, Christopher Hamer. Judges highlighted maloco + associates’ drive, commitment, knowledge and team spirit.