Opinion column: Alan McIntosh

In money advice and personal insolvency, it is accepted as a truism that the longer people pay into any debt repayment plan, the likelihood of them defaulting increases. However, this is not universally accepted. The Minister for Energy, Enterprise & Tourism, Fergus Ewing, believes debtors can pay for longer and have not been paying long enough for the last 28 years, since the Bankruptcy (Scotland) Act 1985 was introduced.

In support of this belief, he has cited evidence from the Scottish Debt Arrangement Scheme, where the average payment period is six and a half years: if these debtors can pay that long, he believes others can too. He has also made the point that only 3% of all DAS cases are revoked each quarter. Obviously a success, until you realise that some in the insolvency industry who have researched this are equating it to 13.4% per annum and, with the average lifetime of a debt payment programme being six and a half years, are suggesting the attrition rates for DAS could eventually be more than 50% for average length programmes. Not so successful, and not so supportive of the argument that paying for longer is suitable for all debtors.

The minister also believes that bankrupts can pay for longer, despite evidence heard by the Energy, Enterprise & Tourism (EET) Committee during stage 1 of the Bankruptcy and Debt Advice (Scotland) Bill. Organisations such as Money Advice Scotland, Citizens Advice Scotland, the Law Society of Scotland, Stepchange, Lloyds Banking Group and the Consumer Finance Association all opposed the change, fearing it could result in increased defaults, hardship and disputes between debtors and trustees.

Part of the problem with the Government’s proposal is that many feel it is completely left field and was never consulted on. The minister has said it was consulted on, and supported by respondents. He cites question 10:41A, where respondents were asked whether they would support an extension of the payment period in one particular type of bankruptcy product. Only 27 supported retaining the three-year period, while 32 supported a rise to five years.

This ignores, however, that the original consultation had proposals for five different bankruptcy products, and, in relation to another product, question 10:47A, in identical terms to question 10:41A, produced 33 responses for keeping the three-year period and only 28 wanting it extended.

What has been overlooked, however, in relation to both questions is that more than half of the 129 respondents ignored both questions, and many indicated they did not feel any additional products were required. Eventually, the proposal to have five different products was shelved.

The minister has argued that the extension is necessary as payment periods must be harmonised with those for protected trust deeds which, since 27 November 2013, now last a minimum of four years. Without harmonisation, it is said, debtors may opt to use bankruptcy as an easier option for dealing with their debts.

However, on 11 October 2013, while giving evidence to the EET Committee on the Protected Trust Deed (Scotland) Regulations 2013, which extended the minimum payment period to four years, the minister dismissed concerns that introducing such changes ahead of the bill being commenced would result in debtors using bankruptcy as an easier way to deal with debts.

He pointed to the rest of the UK, where individual voluntary arrangements, which normally last five years, remain popular despite bankruptcy only having a three-year payment period. Debtors, he argued, did not take the easiest remedy for dealing with their debts and wanted to pay back what they could.

In my view, the real problem here is that the Scottish Government’s proposals to extend bankruptcy payment periods have not been thought through, and are not supported by research. They are not supported by the vast majority of civic Scotland, who make up the key stakeholders and, bizarrely, for once the debt charities and the trade body of payday lenders are all singing from the same hymn sheet.

The four-year period appears to be completely arbitrary, and the arguments in favour of it are weak. They have also been inconsistent, with the minister arguing one minute that harmonisation is not necessary and the next that it is vital.

The Institute of Chartered Accountants in Scotland has called for more research before stage 2 of the bill to explore what, if any, net benefits there would be for creditors. I would support that, but suggest such research should also extend to consider how debtors will be affected.

The Scottish Government may be launching a new Financial Health Service, but it is no National Health Service, and it is not even clear whether it has a Hippocratic Oath of doing no harm.