Editorial: Budget blues

“Eye-wateringly difficult decisions” will have to be taken on UK tax and public spending in the Autumn Statement due later this month. The new, or latest, Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, is attempting to steel us for painful news that is likely to affect all of us in various ways.

Already the Scottish Government has conducted an emergency budget review in the wake of the failed UK September mini-budget and its aftereffects, with priority spending commitments and recently agreed pay awards meaning that savings of £615 million have had to be found, over and above £560 million announced following the Programme for Government launch in September. If the spending brakes are applied at Westminster, that will have a further knock-on effect through the funding formula, just as an increase benefits the devolved governments in better times.

There are many warnings to be heard that the UK economy as a whole is in a parlous state, with continued unravelling due to Brexit – some of course continue to deny such an effect; and the Bank of England is now predicting recession until 2024, however committed to growth our governments may claim to be.

That is not a happy background against which to assess the prospects for public spending on matters of direct concern to the legal profession. Dire warnings have been given in evidence to Holyrood’s Criminal Justice Committee of the effects of spending cuts now being mooted, such as predicting a 25% reduction in civil and summary criminal sheriff court sitting days, and the closure of another three or four court buildings. Some reforms on which COPFS is working, including in relation to how sexual offence cases are handled, would be halted, and the Crown Agent has warned of a risk of loss of confidence in the justice system.

I do not envy anyone in Government having to make tax and spending choices in the current climate. When essential services, support for the least well off, and – in the case of justice – public safety are at risk, however, sacred cows against new or higher taxes ought to be in line for a culling, at least where there is a prospect of them bringing in a reasonable return.

It is not a favourable time either to be calling for improved conditions for legal aid lawyers. The Scottish Government’s £11 million package fell well short of what is needed to secure the future of the sector, but the chances of anything better look pretty slim. And the Society’s new campaign to boost civil legal aid, even assisted by the considerable talents of Darren McGarvey, will also be pushing against strong headwinds. Indeed the profession should be on the alert for cuts to the justice budget that will feed through into fewer cases and lower remuneration. Such are the times in which we now live.