Hold tight for 2011

Welcome to the new year, which may or may not turn out that much different from the one just finished.

Solicitors in Scotland will at least be looking forward to a less schism-ridden time, though we wait to see when, and with what regulation, the Legal Services (Scotland) Act will actually be implemented. Other things being equal you would expect an October commencement to coincide with the full introduction of alternative business structures south of the border, though some rethinking if there is a change of administration after the Holyrood elections in May can't be ruled out entirely.

Yesterday's Times suggested that outside investors' enthusiasm for the legal market may be cooling. In any event, while there are likely to be a few firms willing to try something different, I would not expect a significantly different pattern of ownership of the profession in either jurisdiction by the time the year is out. But the beginnings of longer term change may be there.

ABS issues aside, there will be much else to command attention. The Scotland Bill for one thing is beginning to stir up debate about the economic effects of the tax proposals. That is not my area of expertise, but even without such arguments the new powers being conferred are really quite radical and will require some important policy choices to be made by our MSPs. The lead feature in January's Journal (out on the 17th) explains what is involved.

Those Holyrood elections will of course generate much heat, and for lawyers there will be the question, among others, whether the next administration will share the enthusiasm of the current one for the civil court reforms proposed by Lord Gill. And, of course, we will have a whole new budget round to face, with some risk of money having to be found from current spending to pay for any pet projects promised during the campaign.

The Carloway review will report on the law of criminal evidence and procedure as affected by the Cadder case and its aftermath: we can expect the next Government to want to prove its criminal justice credentials on the back of whatever will emerge from that.

There doesn't appear to be much cheer in store for property lawyers, whether or not house prices show any significant shift. Each month seems to bring new figures showing a decade low in numbers of mortgage approvals, and the VAT rise is not going to help.

But if we brace ourselves for tough times, hopefully the actual outturn will come out on the plus side by comparison. Certainly legal firms that have survived the recession to date must feel that they should be able to pull through the next phase of what looks like a recovery of uncertain strength. With realistic business planning there is no reason why they shouldn't. Best of luck.