"At least 4-5 years" for Scotland to join EU: report
An independent Scotland would not be able to join the European Union for four to five years even on a best case scenario, according to a study published today.
The report, by the independent think tank the Scottish Centre on European Relations, presents the views of 15 experts across 14 topics to analyse what Scotland’s accession process to the EU might look like, and the implications of independence in the EU while the rest of the UK remained outside.
It sets out that in many ways, an independent Scotland would look well positioned to join the EU, and would be likely to succeed in joining, ahead of other candidate countries such as the western Balkan states.
However, the further the UK, and Scotland, diverges from EU law after the end of this year's transition phase, the longer the accession process may take. Scotland would also need to establish institutions, regulatory bodies and laws, that previously sat at UK level. It is argued that the degree to which the UK diverges from EU law in reserved areas will impact strongly on how close Scotland stays to EU laws in devolved areas.
The timescale of four to five years from independence results from Scotland having to apply, be accepted as a candidate, participate in negotiations and undertake all the adjustments that would be demanded by the EU during that process, followed by all 27 EU member states ratifying the EU treaty. Until then, Scotland might need to go through a process like the Brexit transition period and be legally independent of the UK but de facto still part of the UK’s economic area for a while before concluding an association agreement with the EU, and perhaps associate membership of the European Economic Area, ahead of ultimate EU membership.
Three chapters in the report address the Scotland-UK border: whether the common travel area between the UK and Ireland might apply; what the Scotland-England land border would look like, and the control of goods; and the economics of the border being an external border of the EU, as to which the likely impact on an independent Scotland of being in the EU’s customs union and single market will not be fully clear until a UK-EU agreement is reached. There would be scope to negotiate bilaterally around some parts of services trade, since the EU’s single market for services is not complete.
Regarding fiscal and economic policy, and the question of currency, the example of Croatia is considered, a country which joined the EU while not having met its fiscal criteria but then had to adjust rapidly once within the EU. And an independent Scotland would need to commit to joining the euro.
It further appears that there is no way around Scotland having to rejoin the Common Fisheries Policy, whatever concessions or assistance might be negotiated.
As for EU foreign and security policies, it would take several years to scale up diplomatic and military capabilities. The path to being a full EU member in this area would be fairly clear but time-consuming and resource-intensive.
Overall, the Centre states, "the process of joining the EU is a multi-faceted one and would take substantial and detailed political and technical resources and considerable work over some time. In the end, as the experience of other EU enlargements show, accession is a manageable if major process".