Tax forecasts should be Fiscal Commission's job, MSPs say
The Scottish Fiscal Commission should be responsible for producing the official forecasts for the devolved taxes, according to the stage 1 report on the bill to give the Commission a basis in statute, published today.
Whilst the bill proposes that it should be the Scottish Government that produces the forecasts, the Finance Committee believes that the critical issue in relation to forecasting is the credibility of the Commission as an independent body. It concludes that its independence would be enhanced if it produces the official forecasts itself.
The committee also calls for a substantial widening of the Commission’s role, to include assessing how well the Scottish Government performs against its fiscal rules and an assessment of the long-term sustainability of the public finances. The MSPs believe there is currently a lack of institutional capacity within Scotland providing independent scrutiny of the public finances and the Commission provides a substantial opportunity to fill that gap.
Convener Kenneth Gibson MSP commented: "The committee welcomes the establishment of the Commission on a statutory basis and believes it has an important role in providing independent scrutiny of the public finances in Scotland. However, we are strongly of the view that not only should the Scottish Fiscal Commission be independent, but it is vital that it is perceived to be independent. That is why we are calling for the bill to be amended to strengthen the Commission’s role and to give it responsibility for producing the official forecasts.
He added that the wider role the committee is calling for reflected the view of many witnesses who appeared before the committee.